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医学论文范文:香港与北京市严重急性呼吸道综合征综合流行因素
【摘要】 目的：评价香港与北京市严重急性呼吸道综合征(SARS流行相关综合因素。方法：采用因子分析方法对香港与北京市SARS流行的相关因素进行提取公因子，再对这些复合变量进行构筑式多元回归与Logistic回归分析。评估这些复合变量对香港及北京市SARS流行的影响。结果：香港SARS流行因素因子分析提取出3个公因子(措施时间因子、日发病数因子和院内感染倍增因子;随着日发病数因子的增加，香港特区暴发SARS的危险性约增大35.3倍。北京市SARS流行因素因子分析也提取出3个公因子(院内感染倍增因子、措施时间因子和住_出院因子;随着院内感染倍增因子的增加，北京市暴发SARS的危险性增加39.4倍。结论：影响SARS流行的重要因素可能是干预措施与时间因素，造成SARS暴发流行的主要原因是SARS传染源数量剧增。
【关键词】 严重急性呼吸道综合征;流行病学;因子分析
The Multiple Factors Involved in SARS Epidemic between Hong Kong and BeijingLIN Kun，ZHU Bi_liu
(Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou 515041，China
[Abstract]Objective：To evaluate the multiple factors involved in SARS epidemic between Hong Kong and Beijing. Methods：A principal component analysis on the potential factors was used to search for principal components. Then, the analyses of multiphase regression and Logistic regression on these components were applied. Results： In Hong Kong, Measure_Time Factor，Daily Case Factor and Hospital Infection Factor involved in SARS epidemic were gained. The estimated risk of a larger SARS epidemic in Hong Kong was 35.3_fold higher with increase of Daily Case Factor. Hospital Infection Factor, Measure_Time Factor and Hospitalization_Discharge Factor involved in SARS epidemic in Beijing also were obtained. The estimated risk of a larger SARS epidemic in Beijing was 39.4_fold higher with increase of Hospital Infection Factor. Conclusion：Intervention measure and epidemic time may be the most important factors involved in SARS epidemic. The infection source of SARS increased sharply might result in a larger SARS epidemic医.学全.在.线网站www.med126.com.
[Key Words]severe acute respiratory syndrome，epidemiology，factor analysis
严重急性呼吸道综合征(SARS2002_11首先在中国广东暴发，2003_02传入香港。2003_03_01北京发现第1例输入性SARS病例，随后蔓延到周边国家和地区[1_2]。SARS的传染性极强，病死率高，传播速度快，对公众健康构成严重威胁。因此，研究SARS流行的相关因素具有重要的医学意义和社会价值。SARS暴发以来，研究其流行相关因素的论文很多，但大多只考虑单独因素(如预防措施对SARS流行的影响[3]。本研究综合考虑多个因素(每日新发病例、干预措施、医院感染、流行时间等对SARS流行的作用，采用因子分析方法，将多个自变量组合成复合变量，探索这些综合因素对SARS流行的影响。
